In the criminal justice system, there is a focus on the analysis probable cause (cue the Law and Order theme music). In business, we use root cause analysis, which is useful in many cases. But in the world of dealing with other people, we often cannot know their motives or thoughts, and so neither of these is a perfect tool.
Introducing plausible cause analysis.
Our Story
Imagine driving down the freeway in the left lane, flowing with traffic and passing cars on the right occasionally. When you see a car in your rear view moving from the right lane to the left lane and coming up behind you quickly. Before you can change lanes, they go back to the right, pass you and then move back into the left.
What are you thinking about them?
If you are like most people, you make up a quick story about them being a reckless driver.
Which may be true – but it may not be either.
Enter plausible cause analysis.
You can’t know the full story, and while the one we guess, or surmise, might be true, there could be other explanations. The goal of plausible cause analysis is to make a list of other possible (plausible) reasons for that person’s driving behavior.
Building Plausible Cause
What could the reasons be?
- It could be that they are a reckless driver.
- They could be chasing someone, or are being chased.
- They could be rushing someone to the hospital.
- They could be ill themselves.
- They could be late for something important.
- They could have mechanical problems with their car.
- They could just not be paying attention.
You don’t know which one it is. But when you realize there could be other reasons than the one you initially made up (which likely wasn’t wonderful), your attitude might improve and you might think differently about them.
Plausible cause analysis doesn’t change the other person’s behavior but can change your perspective and response to them.
Using Plausible Cause
I used a generic non-work story, but I could have used one about any interaction at work that leaves you frustrated, upset or scratching your head at work.
Plausible cause analysis gives you new and different perspectives to consider about the other person’s behaviors or responses.
Let’s assume you are leading a meeting, and when you ask a question, you get no real responses at all. Your initial thoughts might be that people don’t care about the issue or aren’t listening. Either of those could be true. But Plausible cause analysis gives us multiple other options to consider.
Why aren’t people responding to your questions in a meeting? It could be that…
- They don’t care.
- They weren’t listening.
- They were thinking about their response.
- They weren’t sure their answer would be popular.
- They aren’t sure you really want input.
- They think you have already decided so their input isn’t needed.
- They don’t want to be judged by you (or their peers)
- They have work to do and want to get this meeting over as soon as possible.
- They don’t want to be volunteered (by you) to implement their ideas.
I could go on.
I (and you) don’t know which one(s) are the reason why they are quiet, but all of them are plausible reasons, aren’t they?
Once we think about the quiet group with this set of perspectives, we don’t have to know which one it is. It is our job to mitigate as many as possible, to encourage them to start sharing.
Plausible cause analysis helps us consider additional options and therefore helps us respond differently, and likely more effectively, than by operating based on our initial mental explanation of what we see.
Since there is almost always alternative explanations, we are best served to see the alternatives and then respond in a way that is most productive across the range of options.
I have been practicing this method for many years. While it doesn’t give us certainty, it does give us options to help us improve our thinking, responses, and results.
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