Okay, Let’s Talk Amazon’s Decision

By now, anyone interested in remote work has heard about Amazon’s announcement that all administrative folks must go back to the office five days a week. Reactions out in the world have ranged from, “This is the end of remote work,” to “Jeff Bezos is the devil and will pay with everyone quitting.” What is the upshot of this decision? I don’t know and neither do you so sit back and let’s talk about it like grownups.

Based on the article, what do we actually know?

• Beginning in 2025, all Amazon office staff are expected to work in the office five days a week.
• There is going to be a substantial downsizing of staff (mostly middle management, the most likely group to work from home) and the average manager will have 15% more direct reports than they do now.
• The company is going to increase the number of desks and workspaces in their offices. Amazon is not known for its luxurious accommodations and physical spaces already. They may become even more spartan. What will that do for people’s desire to work remotely at least part of the time? Time will tell.
• The stated reason is that they are trying to avoid the “Day 2” mentality, a dreaded term inside Amazon that symbolizes corporate stagnation and they feel people are more energized and innovative when they are physically together. Anecdotal evidence says there is a short-term uptick in collaborative behavior whenever circumstances change (it went up during the first days of covid despite being remote, for example. Same with initial Return to Office efforts. Change generates new thinking and energy. Over time these behaviors tend to revert to the norm.
• They will track badge-swipes to monitor and enforce the new rules. Amazon has always had some of the toughest employee-monitoring rules in industry. This isn’t new.
• There are the predictable complaints and gnashing-of-teeth about increased commute time, work-life balance, and dictatorial policies driving turnover. The easily outraged will be outraged and vocal, the meek will shut up and do it for at least a while.
• I’ve spoken to several workers in Seattle who don’t work for Amazon but are worried what this will do to their commutes as thousands more people will be on the roads. Seattle commutes are a bear as it is.

With all of that, there are some points that need to be made that are relevant:

• The golden rule applies: the person with the gold makes the rules. Amazon is free to make whatever choices it wants. Despite its cutting-edge computing systems, the business is largely a 20^th Century factory model. Stuff arrives in the warehouse, gets loaded on trucks, and humans deliver the products, 24 hours a day, worldwide. The majority of people were already working on-site. This announcement mostly affects admin and support services.
• Turnover doesn’t scare them. Amazon’s turnover rate is 150% and has been for years. Yes, that’s mostly drivers and warehouse people, but when you’re looking at a pretty big reduction in staff, giving people a reason to quit (with a big savings on severance and benefits) is not a bad plan.

Despite all the yelling and drama, I am going to predict certain things will remain true:

• The majority of people will fall in line. After all, nobody wants to be unemployed and the resume-boost of working for one of the world’s largest employers will always be tempting to a percentage of workers.
• There will be temporary chaos and some turnover, which in this case is as much a feature as a bug. The company is expecting many of these people to go anyway. As we say here in Las Vegas, “everyone knows someone who USED to work at Amazon.”
• There will be more pressure than ever on managers, especially first and second line managers, as their responsibilities will increase and there will be pressure to, if not lessen turnover at least not to make it worse.  Leadership development will be critical, and it remains to be seen if there are plans to boost L and D efforts to match the changes. There will be less working from home, to be sure, but managers will have more reports in other locations or on other shifts. There will be an increase in remote and asynchronous work the higher you go on the org chart.
• We will see the return of “stealth remote.” Before Covid, many offices were a third empty even though people supposedly worked there. Reasons such as sick kids, car trouble, and having to finish a project uninterrupted to meet a deadline will return. Some will be legitimate. Some will be excuses. Lying to the boss has always happened, it should never be institutionalized. We’ll see the rise of “coffee-badging,” where people come in in the morning, swipe their badge (because it’s being monitored) have a cup of coffee or a short meeting with their colleagues then leave. Whenever an unpopular and strict policy is introduced, there is a cottage industry in workarounds and ways to game the system.

We are in the middle of a seismic change in the worker-workplace relationship and the pendulum will swing wildly between tight in-office mandates and loosening of the rules as companies figure out what they need to serve their customers, maintain profits, and create the culture they desire. Companies like Amazon will decide what they want to be, and workers will decide (as much as the economy, geography, and circumstances allow) where they choose to work.

It is all rather predictable. That doesn’t mean it’s not going to be stressful, messy, and weird. What everyone should be thinking about is how will leaders adjust and cope to changing circumstances and are they prepared to lead in a variety of ways for their own (and their employer’s) sake.