No one will argue that uncertainty is real. The future is made up of a vast number of events that might occur, or not. Hence, uncertainty. This reality is why it is difficult to make predictions.
Two Types of Uncertainty
But uncertainty isn’t just reality, it is also a state of mind. When we don’t know what will happen, it can cause stress and anxiety and makes us uncomfortable. This discomfort translates into the increased chance that biases are introduced in our decision making. Call this psychological uncertainty. It might not be real, but it sure feels like it, and it is impacting work and business results every day.
Let’s Make it Worse
Consultants and authors like me make statements like “there is more uncertainty now than ever before,” to make a point (and I have made this point). While it might be true, even if it isn’t, that implanted thought heightens our psychological uncertainty.
If that isn’t bad enough (which it is), when we merge real uncertainty with psychological uncertainty we get this really interesting paradox. We either ignore the real uncertainty with a strong bravado sort of thinking, and just make predictions which might well be wrong, or we become even more bogged down and make no decisions at all, hoping time will make things clearer - which seldom happens. Let’s call the first tendency delusion and the second paralysis.
In between delusion and paralysis lies another, healthier, option.
Making it Better
This middle ground acknowledges both types of uncertainty and works to keep them in check.
- Acknowledge the inherent reality of uncertainty and build strategy and make decisions around it – not try to adjust for it.
- Overcome the fear of making decisions without all the information, because we rarely do anyway.
One way to keep this balance is to remember just because things are uncertain, doesn’t mean they will be bad. The psychological uncertainty mixed with our natural negativity bias leads us to act as if “uncertainty=bad”. The more accurate relationship is that uncertainty likely means different, or “uncertainty=we don’t know.”
When we can keep this health balance of the tensions between the two types of uncertainty, we won’t take unnecessary risks, and we will keep enough of a positive mental approach to improve our reactions to the event that will come.
Keeping it Better
Here’s some advice on how to do what I have just suggested.
- Acknowledge both kinds of uncertainty. When we understand and can name them we can deal with them more effectively.
- Talk though uncertainty (don’t just think about it). Time spent putting our thoughts into words will help us mitigate the worst case scenarios both types of uncertainty can create for us.
- Strive for the balance, both individually and collectively. This might require some coaching or accountability help.
- Remind yourself, uncertainty doesn’t necessarily mean negative. This helps keep you out of a negativity spiral, which won’t help anyway.
- Consider small steps. Testing and trying things are somewhere between delusion and paralysis. And is likely a better place than either one.
If you are a leader and you want to respond better the uncertainty you face, join me June 23rd at Noon ET for a strategy session titled Helping Leaders Navigate Uncertainty in a Changing World.
The idea for this post came from my conversation with Dr. Rebecca Homkes who joins me on The Remarkable Leadership podcast June 17th. Subscribe now wherever you get your podcasts, or watch a recording of our livestream now.
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