Why Leaders Need to Do Plausible Cause Analysis

You’ve heard of probable cause. You’ve found root causes for problems. But what is plausible cause and why should we care?

After all, plausible cause isn’t even an entry in my favorite dictionary (Merriam-Webster). Dictionary.com says it means having an appearance of truth or reason; seemingly worthy of approval or acceptance; credible; believable.

Root cause gives us a sense of foundational truth. Probable cause, in a legal sense, is a reasonable ground for supposing that a charge is well-founded (Merriam-Webster). In a non-legal leadership sense, we might say probable cause is the reasonable or likely reason something happens or happened.

In a world where context is clear and cause-and-effect is known (or can be determined), these are useful ideas and tools.

But the world of work isn’t always so clear, and the situations we lead in don’t always lend themselves to clear or immediately probable solutions.

Enter plausible cause analysis, where we aren’t affirming, or finding reasonable certainty, but rather looking for possibilities.

The questions of plausible cause analysis are less firm:

• What might have caused this?
• What could have been the factors that led us here?
• What are the possible things that lead to this result?

Might. Could. Possible.

This is the realm of the real world of work, isn’t it? We don’t have all the answers and might not even be able to get them - but we need to act, respond and decide without those clear or reasonable answers.

Plausible Cause Analysis

As an executive coach, I am often asked my recommendation for what a leader should do in a situation. Typically, the leader has surmised/assumed why someone is doing something and wants to know how they should respond. My approach is to conduct a plausible cause analysis first (whether I tell the person that is what we are doing or not).

I ask why they feel the person did/decided/acted in the way they did. Then I ask if they know that is the reason or intention. After an acknowledgment that they don’t know for sure, I ask questions like:

• Why else might they have done it?
• What are other possible things that could have led to their action?
• What might have been their goal?
• What might or could have been their intention?
• What could have been their positive intention, even if it doesn’t appear that way?

Questions like this will create a list of possible (even if the leader doesn’t necessarily see them as “reasonable” or “what I would have done”) reasons why people performed/decided/acted the way they did. From this plausible cause analysis, I ask the next, and most important question:

Given this range of possible reasons, what are the responses that would address many or most of these possibilities?

From this new perspective, the leader is far more likely to consider a wider range of possible responses and may take a different approach – and have more confidence in it, even if that wasn’t the approach this initially might have taken. This new approach may not be perfect or even work, but an un-examined, or natural response likely has a lower chance of success.

An Example

Let’s do a thought experiment on a situation you have experienced many times – both as the leader and as a person attending a meeting.

You are leading a meeting and ask a question of the group, wanting their input or ideas. After you ask, you get silence and no one responds.

As the pause continues, there are likely a couple of things going through your mind. You are likely thinking…

• Don’t they care?
• Aren’t they listening?
• Why aren’t they responding?

It is the third question that can lead us to plausible cause analysis. Having done this exercise with many groups of leaders, I know there are at least ten plausible reasons why people don’t respond when the leader asks a question. They include (but this isn’t a complete list – and is in no particular order):

• They are thinking about their response
• They have a response but aren’t sure it is what you are looking for
• They don’t want to share because they don’t want to look stupid (to you or the group)
• They don’t want to look like they are just “getting on your good side”
• They didn’t understand the question
• They aren’t sure they trust why you are asking – is it a trick?
• They think you really have already decided, so why say anything
• They don’t want to be “voluntold” to act on their idea
• They don’t want to go first
• They weren’t listening
• They don’t care

If you respond with your natural inclination, which might be to show your frustration, or start giving some ideas “to get things started,” will that address most, many or even some of these plausible causes?

Not as well as you might have hoped.

But once you consider why people might not be responding, you have a variety of things you can do that might address their unstated concerns and improve the chances they will share ideas.

Which was your goal to begin with -- to get their input.

Plausible cause analysis slows us down enough to consider new ideas and options and keep us from our automatic or habitual responses – at least until we see if those responses have a good chance for success.

This is a simple way to begin to become a more flexible leader – one who can adapt to situations large and small to improve your chances of leadership success.

If you want to learn much more about what it means to be a flexible leader and why that even matters, learn more about and order your copy of my book Flexible Leadership: Navigate Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence here.